All posts in category: Defensives (14)

China Out of Sync

Wednesday, January 17th, 2018

What do they know that we don’t?

Our equity sector models suggest that Chinese investors are much more defensive and less pro-cyclical than investors in every other region. This is odd considering that China is forecast to be the largest single contributor to global growth. The obvious, but not the only possible, explanation is that Chinese investors don’t share this optimism.

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Final Thoughts & First Decisions

Wednesday, December 13th, 2017

The agenda for January starts to take shape

It’s too late to make any significant adjustments to the portfolio this year, but there are several themes which may have matured sufficiently to be immediately actionable when markets restart in January. On the downside, we may have to cut exposure to China and to the Technology sector in the US, and globally. On the upside, there may be an opportunity in UK equities and certain defensive sectors like Staples and Telecom.

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Pick Your Own Narrative

Wednesday, March 15th, 2017

Just accept that defensives are on a roll

Our US Equity sector model is changing its mind on defensive sectors. The bottom came in early February, but the first material increase was only three weeks ago and was mostly down to Healthcare. Since then, the theme has broadened and it is no longer just a reaction to weakness in the commodity-related sectors.

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Rolling the Dice Again

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

The low conviction search for US equity alpha

Our US equity model has suddenly started dumping defensives and buying cyclicals and Financials. It looks as though US investors are rolling the dice again. Their only hope of outperforming in a dull year is to generate some alpha in their US equity portfolio, but it’s a low conviction trade.

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