All posts in category: Equities (56)

Health Warning

Thursday, February 7th, 2019

Running European equity portfolios is harder than normal

The difference between our recommended sector weights for the UK and the Eurozone has reached a seven-year high. Of course, Brexit is part of the explanation, but for most of the period since the referendum this divergence was below its long-term average. It has always been dangerous to transfer sector views from one region to another without careful thought, but the danger now is much higher than normal.

Filed under: Categories: , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Bouncing Britannia

Thursday, January 17th, 2019

A recovery in UK Equities could also benefit the Eurozone

Our models suggest that the UK is recovering relative to global equities. They also suggest that major international investors who were worried about Brexit have long since reduced their exposure to the bare minimum. Predicting the shape of the final deal is still very difficult, but if there are no more sellers….

Filed under: Categories: ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Little Ray of Sunshine

Wednesday, December 5th, 2018

Invest in EM Equities without changing your risk profile

Our models are de-risking as fast as they can, with one exception – emerging market equities. Our individual country analysis suggests that high-quality emerging markets are becoming more attractive than high-quality developed markets and that high-risk EMs are doing the same versus high-risk DMs. Investors can make the switch from DM to EM without changing their short-term risk profile. This doesn’t happen very often.

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Straws in the Wind

Wednesday, November 21st, 2018

A time for observation not forecasts

Forecasting with precision all the components of a bear market is very difficult. Observing the increasing number of signals which point in that direction is much easier. These range from US high yield to Eurozone government bonds and US and European equity strategy. It’s not all bad news. There are some positives, such as the potential for a surprise in UK Equities, and a message to buy duration in US Treasuries. However, the overall message from these straws in the wind is very powerful.

Filed under: Categories: , , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Alternatives to Santa

Thursday, November 8th, 2018

How not to chase the Christmas rally

Investors should feel free to trade a Christmas rally in equities, provided they can identify when to take profit. Our US sector model is firmly in de-risking mode, which means that an extended rally is unlikely. Investors can profit from this correction by adding exposure to EM Equities, buying either an index ETF or selecting from our list of preferred countries.

Filed under: Categories: , , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

How Low Do We Go?

Wednesday, October 24th, 2018

This is a correction, not a bear market

Our asset allocation model cannot get much more bearish. In our view the reason for the recent weakness has been the need for US equities to adjust to PE ratios in line with their long run average now that everything else – real interest rates, risk conditions and earnings growth – is also approaching its own average. We are less concerned about the prospect of a US recession, partly because we see no warning signs from the credit markets. Our model is unlikely to get more optimistic in the next six weeks, but this may happen just in time for Christmas.

Filed under: Categories: , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Eurosceptics may win EU elections

Thursday, October 11th, 2018

A black swan for 2019

We take recent opinion polls for each political party in each country in the EU and compare them with the share of vote and the number of seats they won in the EU Parliamentary elections in 2014. We conclude there is a good chance that Eurosceptic parties may form the largest single grouping after the elections in May 2019. We believe that this scenario has not even been considered by most investors and that it has significant shock value. Some may even regard it as a black swan.

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Time for Another Look

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2018

Two bullish signals for Japan

We have two clear signals that investors – both international and domestic – should take another look at Japanese equities. Our argument is that Japan has better momentum and less risk than other regions, apart from the US where we are maxed out.

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Europe Can Set the Agenda

Wednesday, August 1st, 2018

EM assets are already attractive in euros

Because of the strong dollar, European investors have a chance to buy emerging market exposure without competition from US investors. EM Bonds already offer attractive risk- adjusted returns when measured in euros or pounds. There may also be an opportunity in selected equity markets like Mexico, India and Israel, even if the overall index is unattractive because of its large exposure to China and the threat of a trade war.

Filed under: Categories: , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

A Warning from Japan

Wednesday, February 14th, 2018

Shift to defensives consistent with macro signals

Japan has had a good run at the top of our regional equity model. A shift in risk appetite like the one earlier this month normally implies a change in regional leadership. The yen has broken up through an important trend against the dollar and our Japanese equity sector model is reducing the underweight on defensives, unlike any other developed market. Four good reasons why we expect to downgrade to Japan to neutral soon.

Filed under: Categories: ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN