All posts in category: Geo-Political Risk (15)

Prices Move Before News

Wednesday, May 10th, 2017

Our focus has switched from Europe to China

Newspapers like to argue that events are unforecastable, which is why you need to pay for access to news. We agree that forecasts don’t really work, but we don’t think news does either. We think that prices move before news. Very often the change in price is the news.

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Europe vs Japan

Wednesday, February 8th, 2017

It’s not exactly Godzilla vs King Kong

With every passing week Eurozone and UK equities become a little bit more attractive and Japanese equities little less so. The headlines scream political risk in Europe, but that is a reason to sell government bonds in the affected countries, not international companies, which happen to be quoted there. By contrast, Japan has a bucket load of political risk in the form of President Trump and the dollar-yen exchange rate.

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Political Risk in Europe

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2016

An Investor’s Guide

We all wonder what happens if the Italian government loses the constitutional referendum on December 4th. Most investors understand the negative implications for France, but our analysis suggests that Belgium would also suffer badly. Germany is our preferred safe-haven, but our second choice is Spain.

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Our President, Your Problem

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Japan is least impacted by Trump’s election

Last week we focussed on the prospects for CNY USD exchange rate in the wake of Mr Trump’s election. This week we add falling EM equities, unstable asset allocation models and rising political risk in the Eurozone to the list of issues which confront international investors.  We also note that Japan is hardly affected by any of them.

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Safe, Deep Water

Wednesday, July 6th, 2016

We recommend US fixed income and EM equities

Don’t waste time worrying about all the things which could go wrong after Brexit. It’s better to focus on areas where there is potential for positive returns. We maintain our exposure to a broad spread of US fixed income and are adding to Emerging Markets in equity and fixed income. Find the safe, deep water; stay away from the rocks.

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