All posts in category: Global Equities (53)

Peak Euphoria

Thursday, May 18th, 2017

Macron trade already stronger than Trump trade

Our portfolio has had Eurozone Equities as its #1 position since the middle of March. We now see evidence of indiscriminate buying, with investors scrambling for exposure to the benchmark and not caring about sector or country tilts. Our exposure is now at a level which has only been matched three times by any equity region since the onset of QE.

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Systematic Diversification

Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

A stylistic guide to international equities

What’s the best way of allocating an equity portfolio between the equity indices of the US and another country? We use nine different styles to discover the best regime for each individual country over the last 21 years. Sometimes the quest is hopeless; there is no way of beating the US by diversifying into any Eurozone country. But for the rest of the world, there is nearly always a process which has worked.

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Where To Next?

Wednesday, March 29th, 2017

US investors need to diversify geographically

US Equities look as though they are due a 5-10% correction, so US investors have a chance to look at other opportunities. One option is a Northern Europe group of fiscally responsible countries in and out of the Eurozone. Our preferred option is a diverse group of EMs, including India, Korea, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey, which offer equivalent risk-adjusted returns, but much lower correlation with US Equities.

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Ultra-low Volatility

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2017

But maybe not for much longer

Our global volatility index has just hit a two-year low, but US equities are no longer leading this and are now in a counter-trend, whose strength is disguised by a breakdown in sector correlations. The period of ultra-low volatility is not over yet, but it may not last much longer.

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Europe vs Japan

Wednesday, February 8th, 2017

It’s not exactly Godzilla vs King Kong

With every passing week Eurozone and UK equities become a little bit more attractive and Japanese equities little less so. The headlines scream political risk in Europe, but that is a reason to sell government bonds in the affected countries, not international companies, which happen to be quoted there. By contrast, Japan has a bucket load of political risk in the form of President Trump and the dollar-yen exchange rate.

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Goldilocks returns

Wednesday, January 18th, 2017

But nobody can see her

We stay with our early-year focus on volatility. Many commentators have focussed on the potential for political shocks, but we may be on the verge of an ultra-low volatility regime similar to the Goldilocks period of 2006 and 2007, consistent with abundant liquidity, accelerating growth and fiscal stimulus in many developed economies.

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Simples!

Wednesday, October 26th, 2016

Euro weakness: good for Europe, not for the US.

Buying Eurozone equities on the basis of currency weakness is a tried and trusted tactic, which is suddenly in vogue as the euro approaches a 13-year low against the dollar. Enjoy it while it lasts, because US equities will struggle if dollar strength prompts a wave of downgrades for 2017 earnings.

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Rolling the Dice Again

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

The low conviction search for US equity alpha

Our US equity model has suddenly started dumping defensives and buying cyclicals and Financials. It looks as though US investors are rolling the dice again. Their only hope of outperforming in a dull year is to generate some alpha in their US equity portfolio, but it’s a low conviction trade.

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Give Us a Sign

Wednesday, October 5th, 2016

Looking for turning points in equity sectors

Most of the main asset markets are range bound and moving sideways. So this week we focus on equity sectors where there has been a recent turning point in the risk/reward ratio. We also include a few sectors where the trend has clearly not changed even though some investors might wish it had.

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Diversification in a Positive World

Wednesday, September 21st, 2016

Greater China is negatively correlated

This is the second part of our exercise looking at ways in which investors can diversify away from the threat of falling US Treasuries. This week we focus on global equities and argue that the best protection is offered by Greater China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong). This region is also on the positive watch-list in our All-World Country Equity Report.

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