Probability-based investment modelling for professional and institutional investors
The frequency distribution of realised volatility for US equities is bi-modal, which suggests there are two overlapping risk-regimes, rather than one continuous one. This would make the US different from the rest of the world and increase the potential for a non-linear market response to an incremental policy action by the Fed.
What’s the best way of allocating an equity portfolio between the equity indices of the US and another country? We use nine different styles to discover the best regime for each individual country over the last 21 years. Sometimes the quest is hopeless; there is no way of beating the US by diversifying into any Eurozone country. But for the rest of the world, there is nearly always a process which has worked.
The rotation into US defensives has broadened over the last two weeks. There is a potential contradiction with the high exposure to equities recommended by our asset allocation model. We look at the maths underlying our asset allocation decision, historical precedents for US equities being overbought and international equity comparisons. A 5-10% correction followed by renewed strength, just about fits all the evidence.
Our US Equity sector model is changing its mind on defensive sectors. The bottom came in early February, but the first material increase was only three weeks ago and was mostly down to Healthcare. Since then, the theme has broadened and it is no longer just a reaction to weakness in the commodity-related sectors.
Many analysts cite a possible break in the regime of low volatility as a potential threat to the performance US Equities. They are right, but they only have half the story. A rise in equity volatility only matters if it is NOT accompanied by a rise in Treasury volatility. If it is, there is no change to the hurdle rate which determines the risk-efficiency of equities relative to bonds.