Do They Know It’s Christmas

Wednesday, December 6th, 2017 Categories: China, Equities, Seasonality, United States

Chinese and US equity seasonality are different

We remain concerned about the bubble in the Chinese Technology sector leading to a global equity correction. This week we examine the seasonality of Chinese equity returns to see if we can get any clues on timing. We find that the recent sell-off is in line with normal seasonal patterns and that the moment of greatest risk appears to be mid-February to early April or early June to mid-July, assuming a sell-off starts in China, not elsewhere.

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