Do They Know It’s Christmas
Chinese and US equity seasonality are different
We remain concerned about the bubble in the Chinese Technology sector leading to a global equity correction. This week we examine the seasonality of Chinese equity returns to see if we can get any clues on timing. We find that the recent sell-off is in line with normal seasonal patterns and that the moment of greatest risk appears to be mid-February to early April or early June to mid-July, assuming a sell-off starts in China, not elsewhere.