Skip to content

Harlyn Research LLP

Probability-based investment modelling for professional and institutional investors

  • Home
  • Research
  • Models
  • Contact
  • Log In
  • My Harlyn
  • Home
  • Research
  • Models
  • Contact
  • Log In
  • My Harlyn

Fear Volatility not Bond Yields

Wednesday, February 7th, 2018   Categories: Earnings Estimates, Harlyn's Process, Volatility, Yield curve

This is what drives asset allocation

The Great Volatility Slide is Over and it is time to compare the relative impact of rising bond yield vs rising volatility on asset allocation. We conclude that consensus earnings estimates for 2018 provide a substantial margin of safety against the threat of rising bond yields and rising volatility. The margin of safety declines in 2019, but the big threat comes from volatility, not bond yields. On current forecasts, we would need to return to an ultra-low volatility regime in order to maintain an overweight in equities into 2020.

Download Added to cart
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
Not a subscriber? PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Any investments or investment services mentioned in this web-site are only available to professional clients.

This web-site is issued in the United Kingdom by Harlyn Research LLP, “Harlyn”, (registered in England and Wales; number OC369433), an Appointed Representative of Stoneware Capital LLP (“Stoneware”), which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The investment products and services of Stoneware and Harlyn are only available to professional clients and eligible counterparties. They are not available to retail (investment) clients. Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance.

Privacy Policy
Terms and Conditions
Website by Dovedale Design
Admin
© Harlyn Research LLP 2012-2023