International Bears
Wednesday, October 18th, 2017 Categories: Bear Markets, Eurozone, Harlyn's Process, Japan, Volatility
Excess volatility as an indicator of trouble ahead
| After last week’s note about excess volatility in the US, we look at the experience of other developed markets in 2000, 2007 and 2015. In a majority of occasions, material increases in excess volatility signaled the onset of a correction and/or the transformation to a full-scale bear market. There are no such signals at the current time, which we regard as comforting, though not conclusive, evidence in favour of our equity overweight. |