Our flagship product, called Synopsis, is published every two weeks. It uses the data generated by our process to address whatever we think are the most important issues in global investing at the time.

description and link to all access pass

All our notes are tagged thematically, so feel free to click on any of the topics and explore what we have written.

Under UK regulations, our research is only available to professional clients and eligible counterparties; they are not available to retail (investment) clients. Harlyn Research is not registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and therefore any information about our investment products or services is not directed at nor intended for US investors.

How to Manage Falling Treasuries

Wednesday, September 14th, 2016

Buy Credits where volatility is still falling

We think that the best way dealing with falling Treasuries is to stay in fixed income and to seek out situations in the credit markets, which are priced for high levels of risk, and where volatility is still falling. The problem with reducing duration or buying inflation-linked bonds is that the Fed and other central banks can force you to unwind it if they want to.

Filed under: Categories: , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

The Way We Live Now

Wednesday, September 7th, 2016

Positive correlation meets asset allocation theory

Most of the major developed equity markets, except the US, are positively correlated with their local government bond market. This makes portfolio diversification very difficult, but the basic conclusion is that if you think government bonds are going to fall, you should expect equities to fall further.

Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

China Rehabilitated

Wednesday, August 31st, 2016

This week we upgrade China to overweight relative to global equities and Chinese Financials to overweight relative to the local index. There is some interesting evidence to suggest that the PBoC has begun the forced recapitalisation of Tier-2 banks. This has already caused Chinese Financials to decouple from the sector in the rest of the world and it may lead to the rehabilitation of the country as a destination for international investors.

Forced recapitalisation of Tier-2 banks has begun

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

We’re in a Hole, Janet

Wednesday, August 17th, 2016

Please explain the third leg of US monetary policy

Please explain the third leg of US monetary policy

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Vanishing Vol and Risk-Parity

Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

Following the Fed doesn’t make you money

One of the main reasons for the new high in US equities is the sharp decline in the volatility of their returns compared with those of other asset classes. Any institutional investor with a formal risk-budgeting approach will be forced to allocate more money to them, having not owned them when they were riskier, but cheaper. This looks dangerously like a “buy high, sell low” strategy.

Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Shine a Light

Wednesday, July 20th, 2016

Good news is not good enough for some investors

The way in which different regions respond to good news can tell us a lot about investor attitudes. The recent US payroll data are a good example of this. The US, China and the Anglosphere - including the UK – responded well; the Eurozone and Japan didn’t. It’s hard to reconcile this reaction with IMF forecasts that make the UK the centre of a global slowdown over the next 12 months.

Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Catastrophically Awful

Wednesday, July 13th, 2016

Eurozone banks are in crisis NOW

The scores for the Financials sector in our Eurozone and Pan-European equity models are catastrophically awful – as bad as those for US Financials at the onset of the Lehmans crisis. The only possible conclusion is that the Eurozone financial crisis has already begun. The three large banks with the worst individual scores are Unicredit, Intesa and Deutsche Bank.

Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Safe, Deep Water

Wednesday, July 6th, 2016

We recommend US fixed income and EM equities

Don’t waste time worrying about all the things which could go wrong after Brexit. It’s better to focus on areas where there is potential for positive returns. We maintain our exposure to a broad spread of US fixed income and are adding to Emerging Markets in equity and fixed income. Find the safe, deep water; stay away from the rocks.

Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN