All posts in category: Turning Points (3)

All Trussed Up & Nowhere to Go

Friday, October 6th, 2023

US fiscal profligacy is the new ingredient in this bond crisis

This is a companion piece to last week’s note about the US 10-year Treasury – Why Yields Could Go to 6%. We think we are in a new trading range of 4.3-5.3% and that the biggest single reason for the change is the administration’s plan for 6% budget deficits until the end of the decade. We think there is a significant risk that it will be self-defeating, and that it is too close for comfort to the Liz Truss plan in the UK. We also think that the Fed is happy for bond markets to preach the virtues of fiscal restraint to the administration and is unlikely to ease rates in the absence of a financial accident. The latter is, of course, the most likely outcome of such a dramatic rise in yields.

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Timing the Market Successfully

Friday, September 1st, 2023

Modelling the behaviour of risk-seeking investors

For some time, we have been interested in the behaviour of risk-seeking investors, which we model using a variant of our standard approach, called a pro-risk momentum model. We find that it can be used to time switches between cash and US equities, so that our model outperforms US equities on a standalone basis over the last 50 years. This is a result which most academic research regards as unachievable. In absolute terms, the quantum of outperformance is not material, but the risk-adjusted returns are clearly superior and the drawdowns are significantly smaller and shorter. We find that the same approach also works when combining US 10-year Treasuries with cash and a broad commodity index with cash.

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Give Us a Sign

Wednesday, October 5th, 2016

Looking for turning points in equity sectors

Most of the main asset markets are range bound and moving sideways. So this week we focus on equity sectors where there has been a recent turning point in the risk/reward ratio. We also include a few sectors where the trend has clearly not changed even though some investors might wish it had.

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