Three Things That Didn’t Happen
Friday, March 24th, 2023 Categories: Defensives, Dollar index, Emerging Markets, Market dislocation
No dollar surge, no switch to defensives or into EM Equities
We have written before about the importance of dogs which don’t bark in the night. Three things did not happen last week. The dollar did not surge in response to stress in financial markets. Equity investors did not dump cyclical or high-beta sectors in favour of defensive sectors. There was no shift towards EM Equities in response to a banking crisis in developed markets. Simple explanations are often wrong, but maybe investors think that the dollar is structurally over-valued, that there isn’t going to be a recession in the US or Europe and that the great globalisation trade of the last 30 years is over. They could be wrong, but their opinions are important.