Emerging Markets – Harlyn Research LLP

What To Do About China

Saturday, May 6th, 2023

It’s an ill wind which blows nobody any good.

EM Equities are in deep trouble and we see no early turning-point, mainly because China is also suffering. The strong outperformance promised after the end of lockdown has not materialised, but more importantly, our models suggest that the local equity market itself is not functioning as it should. Two relatively obscure indicators: active weight and persistence of winning and losing sectors are either at, or very close to, 20-year lows. This suggests that investors are struggling to construct portfolios, which deliver an appropriate balance between risk and return. This is not a problem China has suffered from until recently and if it continues, international investors may have to regard this as a secular trend, not a cyclical aberration. If EM and China are not attractive destinations for international capital, other regions must benefit on a relative basis – and the most obvious is Europe.

Filed under: Categories: China, Emerging Markets, Global Equities, Rotation

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Three Things That Didn’t Happen

Friday, March 24th, 2023

No dollar surge, no switch to defensives or into EM Equities

We have written before about the importance of dogs which don’t bark in the night. Three things did not happen last week. The dollar did not surge in response to stress in financial markets. Equity investors did not dump cyclical or high-beta sectors in favour of defensive sectors. There was no shift towards EM Equities in response to a banking crisis in developed markets. Simple explanations are often wrong, but maybe investors think that the dollar is structurally over-valued, that there isn’t going to be a recession in the US or Europe and that the great globalisation trade of the last 30 years is over. They could be wrong, but their opinions are important.

Filed under: Categories: Defensives, Dollar index, Emerging Markets, Market dislocation

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The Unreal, Real Yield

Friday, September 16th, 2022

Inflation expectations in the US are still too low.

There is a big mismatch in US inflation expectations, with 10-year breakeven rates anchored around 2 percent, survey data at 5 percent and core CPI at over 6 percent. We think the latter figures are far more realistic, which means that the US fixed income and equity markets could be in for a nasty shock. We also think that global currency markets are becoming disorderly and that the yen, euro and sterling will all test historic lows against the dollar. It’s not a “sell-everything” strategy, but it is closely related. There may soon be an interesting opportunity in EM Equities and EM Bonds. The last bull market in EM Equities started about three months before the dollar index hit its last high in late 2001 and we see other historical parallels which spark our attention,

Filed under: Categories: Dollar index, Emerging Markets, Inflation, Interest Rates, Real Yield

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Pivot to Asia

Friday, July 22nd, 2022

It may be the least-worst option

There is a leadership vacuum in global equity markets. The US, the Eurozone and the UK all have serious issues to confront, ranging from valuation excess and monetary tightening to political uncertainty and energy rationing. Japan and Emerging Asia share some of these problems but are not as badly affected. One is a low return, risk reduction trade, while the other offers high risk and high reward. Both strategies have a place in a well-diversified global equity portfolio.

Filed under: Categories: Diversification, Emerging Markets, Equities, Japan

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Discontinuity Rules

Friday, March 18th, 2022

A lot has changed but not everything that should have

If the fall of the Berlin Wall was supposed to be the end of history, the invasion of Ukraine may well mark the rebirth of geography in investment markets. Equity returns in Europe are being impacted by country specific factors beyond the usual mix of sector effects. We see the potential for new definitions of core and periphery in Eurozone bond markets and there are many emerging equity markets in Latin America and SE Asia which are not affected by the war, even the asset class as a whole is (China, Russia, Eastern Europe). The thing which hasn’t changed is the momentum of US earnings growth.

Filed under: Categories: Emerging Markets, Eurozone Crisis, Geo-Political Risk

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Time for Some Bottom-Fishing

Friday, November 26th, 2021

Chinese Technology could lead a rally in EM Equities

We spend a lot of our time dissuading clients from going bottom-fishing, mainly because it doesn’t work very well. But there are times when we may need to do it to protect ourselves from the risk of being underweight a sector or country which rallies very fast. This week we highlight a combination of charts (EM Equities and China vs the World and Chinese Technology vs China) which have all sent recent signals suggesting that we may need to close our underweight positions in a hurry. There is a risk/opportunity that Chinese Technology could lead sharp and unexpected rally in EM Equities.

Filed under: Categories: China, Emerging Markets, Market Timing, Technology

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China vs US Exceptionalism

Friday, August 27th, 2021

Exposure to some sectors may be justified but timing is critical

Our recommended exposure to Chinese equities is effectively zero, but EM Equities (of which China is by far the largest part) are critical to the success of any global balanced portfolio. So, we have looked at individual Chinese sectors to see which ones have been the most successful diversifiers compared to their US counterpart. The good news is that it is easy to identify those which fail the test badly: Financials, Industrials, Telecom and Small Caps. The bad news is that only Technology has offered successful diversification over the whole of our test period, but now is not a good entry point. There may also be opportunities in Consumer Staples and Healthcare, but, again, we prefer to wait for a better entry point.

Filed under: Categories: China, Diversification, Emerging Markets, Equities, Seasonality, United States

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Time to Separate China from EM

Friday, August 13th, 2021

EM ex China has begun an interesting rally

We think it is time to take China out of the main EM equity indices. Some of the arguments made for its inclusion are no longer valid. It doesn’t make sense to have separate benchmarks for companies listed in China and Hong Kong. Separate indices for China plus Hong Kong and the rest of Emerging Markets would increase flexibility for all investors, not just those who no longer wish to have passive exposure to the current regime in China. Once we make the split, we can see that EM ex China has already begun an interesting rally.

Filed under: Categories: China, Diversification, Emerging Markets, ESG, FX rates

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The China Question

Friday, July 30th, 2021

China’s problem may be Europe’s opportunity.

Our recommended weight for Chinese equities has just hit its all-time low since the beginning of this century. They have been in extreme underweight territory for their longest period ever. We think this is more than a temporary misunderstanding. It could represent the breakdown of the pro-China consensus that has dominated US investment thinking for over a decade. There may be parallels with what happened when the US became disillusioned with Russia 10 years ago. US investors who want international equity diversification will be forced to have another look at Europe.

Filed under: Categories: China, Emerging Markets, Geo-Political Risk, Global Equities, Market Timing

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Fizzing or Bubbling?

Friday, January 29th, 2021

The immediate danger lies in Asia, not the US

Everyone is suddenly on bubble alert, but our numbers suggest that the main danger lies in Asian equities, not the US. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, India, Japan, Australia and Indonesia all have weekly RSIs above 70%, which is our warning signal. US equities are still below this threshold, apart from Small Caps, which broke above it three weeks ago.

Filed under: Categories: China, Emerging Markets, Equities

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