All posts in category: Emerging Markets (38)

No Case for Emerging Markets Yet

Wednesday, July 19th, 2017

Europe’s winning streak is set to continue

Europe, apart from the UK, is producing better risk-adjusted returns than most emerging markets. These have been flattered by favourable FX movements, but there are good fundamental reasons for this as well. Unless the euro gets too strong, we don’t see why investors would want to change a winning formula, anytime soon.

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The Missing Piece of Chewing Gum

Wednesday, April 26th, 2017

No clear signals out of China

We don’t have the killer chart that says China is going to blow up or shoot the lights out. Our models are curiously inconclusive, which is unusual for China, and the underlying data are trading in a very narrow range. All of which makes us nervous.

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Di-Worse-ification

Wednesday, April 5th, 2017

US buys the Eurozone for a trade, not forever.

Everybody seems to be increasing their exposure to Eurozone Equities at the same time. We agree with the trade but are cautious about some of the commentary. Eurozone investors need US equities to construct risk-efficient portfolios, but US investors do not need Eurozone equities in the same way. They do, however, need Emerging Markets.

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Where To Next?

Wednesday, March 29th, 2017

US investors need to diversify geographically

US Equities look as though they are due a 5-10% correction, so US investors have a chance to look at other opportunities. One option is a Northern Europe group of fiscally responsible countries in and out of the Eurozone. Our preferred option is a diverse group of EMs, including India, Korea, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey, which offer equivalent risk-adjusted returns, but much lower correlation with US Equities.

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Self-Help in Emerging Markets

Wednesday, March 1st, 2017

Use local investors as your guide

It’s time to look at EM Equities again. Our view is that international investors should be selective and go for countries which are capable of self-help, like India, but not Russia. That means working with the preferences and opinions of local investors, not against them.

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Diversification in a Positive World

Wednesday, September 21st, 2016

Greater China is negatively correlated

This is the second part of our exercise looking at ways in which investors can diversify away from the threat of falling US Treasuries. This week we focus on global equities and argue that the best protection is offered by Greater China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong). This region is also on the positive watch-list in our All-World Country Equity Report.

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Shine a Light

Wednesday, July 20th, 2016

Good news is not good enough for some investors

The way in which different regions respond to good news can tell us a lot about investor attitudes. The recent US payroll data are a good example of this. The US, China and the Anglosphere – including the UK – responded well; the Eurozone and Japan didn’t. It’s hard to reconcile this reaction with IMF forecasts that make the UK the centre of a global slowdown over the next 12 months.

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Safe, Deep Water

Wednesday, July 6th, 2016

We recommend US fixed income and EM equities

Don’t waste time worrying about all the things which could go wrong after Brexit. It’s better to focus on areas where there is potential for positive returns. We maintain our exposure to a broad spread of US fixed income and are adding to Emerging Markets in equity and fixed income. Find the safe, deep water; stay away from the rocks.

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