Japan – Page 3 – Harlyn Research LLP

International Bears

Wednesday, October 18th, 2017

Excess volatility as an indicator of trouble ahead

After last week’s note about excess volatility in the US, we look at the experience of other developed markets in 2000, 2007 and 2015. In a majority of occasions, material increases in excess volatility signaled the onset of a correction and/or the transformation to a full-scale bear market. There are no such signals at the current time, which we regard as comforting, though not conclusive, evidence in favour of our equity overweight.

Filed under: Categories: Bear Markets, Eurozone, Harlyn's Process, Japan, Volatility

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Europe vs Japan

Wednesday, February 8th, 2017

It’s not exactly Godzilla vs King Kong

With every passing week Eurozone and UK equities become a little bit more attractive and Japanese equities little less so. The headlines scream political risk in Europe, but that is a reason to sell government bonds in the affected countries, not international companies, which happen to be quoted there. By contrast, Japan has a bucket load of political risk in the form of President Trump and the dollar-yen exchange rate.

Filed under: Categories: Eurozone, FX rates, Geo-Political Risk, Global Equities, Japan

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Our President, Your Problem

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Japan is least impacted by Trump’s election

Last week we focussed on the prospects for CNY USD exchange rate in the wake of Mr Trump’s election. This week we add falling EM equities, unstable asset allocation models and rising political risk in the Eurozone to the list of issues which confront international investors. We also note that Japan is hardly affected by any of them.

Filed under: Categories: Eurozone Crisis, FX rates, Geo-Political Risk, Japan

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