All posts in category: United States (64)

A Difference of Opinion

Friday, July 2nd, 2021

What ESG may mean for the Energy sector

US investors are significantly more positive about the Energy sector than their European counterparts. There could be many explanations, but we are increasingly concerned that there is a buyer’s strike in Europe. This could have unintended consequences – first of all for the implementation of a low-carbon style on a global basis, and second on the outlook for inflation in 2023 and beyond. Changes in our investment style in Europe may have moved too far in advance of changes in our lifestyle.

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There Will Be A Correction

Friday, April 23rd, 2021

But we don’t know when, why or how much

With very few exceptions, our main risk-appetite indicators are at or close to maximum risk-on. We see evidence of peaking behaviour in global equities vs global fixed income, in US Credit, and cyclicals vs defensives in the US, Japan and the UK. There is one indicator – Italian vs German government bonds – which is already past its peak. Most investors understand this and intend to use any correction as a buying opportunity. However, it still makes sense to take some risk off the table now, if only to put it back on at a lower price. We are also concerned that investors may be ignoring an uptick in geo-political risk.

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Three Ideas from the US Senate

Friday, January 15th, 2021

Energy, Healthcare and Communications in the spotlight

Elections don’t change things, except when they do. The combination of the Saudi oil cut and Democrat control of the Senate could usher in a period of materially higher oil prices. The Senate victory also means that social media companies may be threatened with more regulation and even a possible break-up. But does the new administration have the political capital to take on Big Pharma at the same time? The outlook for the Healthcare sector may be more hopeful than the Blue Wave doomsters suggested.

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Two Big Ideas for 2021

Friday, December 11th, 2020

Underweight US Equities, Overweight Small Caps

In 2021, we expect our models to recommend an extended underweight in US Equities and an overweight in Small Caps, particularly Europe, The US underweight is controversial and has often been wrong, but investors need to know that we have been significantly overweight for most of the last 10 years. The underweight worked well in the recoveries of 2003-04 and 2009, and we participated on both occasions. The same is true of our overweight on Small Caps, which is our preferred way of playing the economic recovery and equity rotation at the same time.

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How the World Turns

Friday, November 27th, 2020

The value trade won’t work everywhere

This report is a real-time survey of how the great rotation is progressing in different regions of the world. Our conclusions are (1) Many of the important sector infection points happened back in September; so talking about them now in terms of factors suggests that people missed them the first time round. (2) The UK has much the most aggressive sector rotation and China the least. (3) There are different winners and losers in each region and any attempt to apply one paradigm to all of them is likely to fail. (4) Many value-rich sectors in each region have hardly moved, suggesting that the value trade has already been differentiated into those sectors which have catalysts and those which don’t.

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Rotation, Inflection & Persistence

Friday, November 13th, 2020

The bottom is not bouncing to the top

There has been a lot of excitement about factor rotation in equities, but it’s mostly based on the back of two days’ trading at the start of this week. We agree that rotation is going to pick up, but from a very low base and our work suggests that it’s going to be from the top to the middle and vice versa. We think that the laggards, like Financials, Energy and Telecom could underperform for some time to come. If the factors in question are meaningful, they will show up in sector performance fairly soon. If not, perhaps they are not as important as reported.

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FAANGs can bite you

Friday, October 16th, 2020

Some US Tech giants are already rated underweight

We re-iterate our call to take profits in US Tech. We have downgraded Communications to neutral this week and we already have Google/Alphabet as an underweight. The Tech sector broke down through an important technical signal in late August and is now accelerating towards a downgrade. Leading stocks like Microsoft have been downgraded and only Apple looks robust at current levels. The majority of the large stocks we cover have lower scores than they did at the end of summer.

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Two Red Flags from China

Friday, August 21st, 2020

Cause for concern in Technology and Financials

China’s stock market is always subject to official intervention, so the signals need to be interpreted carefully. However, there are two new red flags in our equity sector model, relating to Technology and Financials. Technology has suddenly started to deteriorate, which has historically been a good lead indicator for the US Tech sector. Financials are heading for a multi-year low relative to the index, which could have important implications for China’s FX policy regime.

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Party Like It’s 1999

Friday, August 7th, 2020

Time to take profits in US Tech

The US Tech sector has just flashed an important warning signal. Our recommended weighting has just dropped below its 52-week moving average. This has happened seven times in the last 25 years and the result is always a significant reduction in exposure. Six times out of seven, the sector has not bottomed until it was deep in underweight territory.

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Rotation in the US

Friday, July 10th, 2020

US sector signals suggest a reappraisal during results season

Our US equity sector model has been unusually quiet of late, but we are picking up signals that this is about to change. The lead indicator for the scale of potential changes is close to a one-year high and the level of conviction attached to this reading is at a two-year high. We expect the rotation to start at the bottom and work upwards. Energy and Materials look interesting, while Staples, Utilities and, possibly, Healthcare look challenged.

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