Global Equities – Page 3 – Harlyn Research LLP

Two Big Ideas for 2021

Friday, December 11th, 2020

Underweight US Equities, Overweight Small Caps

In 2021, we expect our models to recommend an extended underweight in US Equities and an overweight in Small Caps, particularly Europe, The US underweight is controversial and has often been wrong, but investors need to know that we have been significantly overweight for most of the last 10 years. The underweight worked well in the recoveries of 2003-04 and 2009, and we participated on both occasions. The same is true of our overweight on Small Caps, which is our preferred way of playing the economic recovery and equity rotation at the same time.

Filed under: Categories: Global Equities, Small Caps, United States

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Buying Dips & Selling Bounces

Friday, June 26th, 2020

What works and what doesn’t

Given the likelihood of a second wave of the pandemic at some stage during the rest of this year, we have gone back through 25 years of data in over 40 countries, to see if there are any lessons about what to do in the immediate aftermath of a very bad sell-off. We find that buying the dip is not always a successful strategy and certainly not as successful as selling the bounce. By far the best strategy is avoiding the really bad weeks completely, which is easier said than done. The uplift from doing this is so significant that it dwarfs any other strategy. Even partial success is worth the effort – and the risk of missing out.

Filed under: Categories: Global Equities, Market Timing, Tail Risk

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Asia: First In, First Out

Thursday, March 19th, 2020

Already producing better risk-adjusted returns

The recent volatility shock is as big as the one in the middle of the GFC and it isn’t over yet. It has also happened three times faster, in three weeks rather than nine. Fear is inevitable, but the are some interesting opportunities, especially in Asia. Countries like Taiwan and South Korea have managed the corona virus better than the US or Europe, while China is already recovering. If you wait for the bounce in the West, you may miss it in the East.
There

Filed under: Categories: China, Emerging Markets, Global Equities, Japan, Market Timing, Risk-Adjusted Returns, Volatility

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The Forgotten Country

Thursday, December 5th, 2019

Why does nobody like Japan? - continued

Behind the US, Japanese equities have the second-highest, risk-adjusted returns over the last 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. Over the last five years, they have generated the fastest EBIT and dividend growth. They have the lowest pay-out ratio of the major regions (therefore most potential for growth). They have been our preferred equity region since early October and, as of this week, are ranked #1 in our combined asset allocation model.

Filed under: Categories: Dividends, Global Equities, Japan

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Where Have All the Leaders Gone?

Thursday, November 21st, 2019

And why does nobody like Japan?

Two weeks ago, we had the lowest number of net buying opportunities for individual countries since May 2000. It’s hard to be bullish about global equities as an asset class when there are so few leaders. Japan is one of just three countries which look attractive on our system, but nobody seems to care.

Filed under: Categories: Diversification, Emerging Markets, Global Equities, Japan, Market Timing, Rotation

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Eurozone Rising

Thursday, July 11th, 2019

US investors need to take another look

The Eurozone will soon be the top-ranked equity region in both our euro and dollar-denominated asset allocation models. We think this will prompt US investors to have another look across the Atlantic. We think there are three sectors where they will concentrate their buying to start with: Consumer Goods; Industrials and Utilities. All three sectors are capable of outperforming their US counterpart and the US index as a whole.

Filed under: Categories: Equities, Eurozone, Global Equities, Sector Strategy

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Message from the Black Box

Thursday, May 2nd, 2019

July is the next danger period for US equities

Our models are actually very simple but they often look like a black box to outsiders. We have three separate indicators which all suggest that July will be a dangerous period for US equities. All of them are based on the way in which our models have behaved over the last 24 years. Of course, things may be different this time. We will just have to wait and see.

Filed under: Categories: Global Equities, Harlyn's Process, Market Timing, Seasonality

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Capitulation and the rule of 35

Thursday, April 18th, 2019

Managing risk on the downside

Equity bears are capitulating. The priority is to protect their portfolios from further underperformance by getting closer to their benchmark equity weight. Our models have always shown that the worst sample periods for our process are between 29-35 weeks. The behavioural explanation would be that fund managers are allowed to be wrong for two quarters in a row, but not for three. Cutting a losing position during the third quarter of the mistake tends to be more damaging than doing it early in the second.

Filed under: Categories: Diversification, Global Equities, Government Bonds, Harlyn's Process, Market Timing

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Markets at a Crossroads

Wednesday, February 20th, 2019

US Industrials may give us a sign

We detect signs that the rally in global equities is losing momentum, but we could be wrong, so we are going to do nothing for the next week or two. There are signs of recovering risk appetite in EM Equities and in credit, but not in equity sector selection. Our global equity vs fixed income model is at a critical chart-point and we will look to US Industrials to provide confirmation of that message, whatever it is, whenever it comes.

Filed under: Categories: Defensives, Global Equities, Harlyn's Process, Market Timing

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Don’t Forget the Skew

Thursday, November 29th, 2018

Plan for falling equities with violent changes of direction

Although our models are consistently bearish about the outlook for equities, we agree that there are several large problems which have depressed performance, which would allow the market to bounce if they were “solved” – even temporarily. Rather than prepare for an outright bear market, we think investors should focus on the bull/bear skew and sell countries which tend not to perform in rising markets, even though they are heavily exposed when they fall. This list includes several large Anglo-Saxon markets such as the UK, Canada and Australia.

Filed under: Categories: Bear Markets, Diversification, Global Equities, Risk-Adjusted Returns

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