All posts in category: Global Equities (57)

Simples!

Wednesday, October 26th, 2016

Euro weakness: good for Europe, not for the US.

Buying Eurozone equities on the basis of currency weakness is a tried and trusted tactic, which is suddenly in vogue as the euro approaches a 13-year low against the dollar. Enjoy it while it lasts, because US equities will struggle if dollar strength prompts a wave of downgrades for 2017 earnings.

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Rolling the Dice Again

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

The low conviction search for US equity alpha

Our US equity model has suddenly started dumping defensives and buying cyclicals and Financials. It looks as though US investors are rolling the dice again. Their only hope of outperforming in a dull year is to generate some alpha in their US equity portfolio, but it’s a low conviction trade.

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Give Us a Sign

Wednesday, October 5th, 2016

Looking for turning points in equity sectors

Most of the main asset markets are range bound and moving sideways. So this week we focus on equity sectors where there has been a recent turning point in the risk/reward ratio. We also include a few sectors where the trend has clearly not changed even though some investors might wish it had.

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Diversification in a Positive World

Wednesday, September 21st, 2016

Greater China is negatively correlated

This is the second part of our exercise looking at ways in which investors can diversify away from the threat of falling US Treasuries. This week we focus on global equities and argue that the best protection is offered by Greater China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong). This region is also on the positive watch-list in our All-World Country Equity Report.

Filed under: Categories: , , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

The Way We Live Now

Wednesday, September 7th, 2016

Positive correlation meets asset allocation theory

Most of the major developed equity markets, except the US, are positively correlated with their local government bond market. This makes portfolio diversification very difficult, but the basic conclusion is that if you think government bonds are going to fall, you should expect equities to fall further.

Filed under: Categories: , , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

China Rehabilitated

Wednesday, August 31st, 2016

This week we upgrade China to overweight relative to global equities and Chinese Financials to overweight relative to the local index. There is some interesting evidence to suggest that the PBoC has begun the forced recapitalisation of Tier-2 banks. This has already caused Chinese Financials to decouple from the sector in the rest of the world and it may lead to the rehabilitation of the country as a destination for international investors.

Forced recapitalisation of Tier-2 banks has begun

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN

Shine a Light

Wednesday, July 20th, 2016

Good news is not good enough for some investors

The way in which different regions respond to good news can tell us a lot about investor attitudes. The recent US payroll data are a good example of this. The US, China and the Anglosphere – including the UK – responded well; the Eurozone and Japan didn’t. It’s hard to reconcile this reaction with IMF forecasts that make the UK the centre of a global slowdown over the next 12 months.

Filed under: Categories: , ,
Synopses can be downloaded by subscribers holding a Harlyn All Access Pass
PURCHASE ALL ACCESS PASS
Already hold an All Access Pass? LOG IN