Our flagship product, called Synopsis, is published every two weeks. It uses the data generated by our process to address whatever we think are the most important issues in global investing at the time.
All our notes are tagged thematically, so feel free to click on any of the topics and explore what we have written.
Under UK regulations, our research is only available to professional clients and eligible counterparties; they are not available to retail (investment) clients. Harlyn Research is not registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and therefore any information about our investment products or services is not directed at nor intended for US investors.
Defensive Mindset
Wednesday, July 11th, 2018The least bad alternative
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Red Flags
Wednesday, July 4th, 2018Emerging Markets, the Renminbi & Eurozone Banks
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The Endowment Effect
Wednesday, June 27th, 2018Do US Tech companies over-value their own shares?
We are in the middle of the pre-announcement period when US companies suspend their buyback programmes, most notably the Tech sector. Our models suggest that they may have recently started to value their own prospects more highly than external investors
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Some Relief at Last
Wednesday, June 13th, 2018US Treasuries may bounce in Q3
The risk-adjusted returns of all parts of the US Treasury curve are set to improve over the summer. Our models suggest that investors may be revising down their estimates of the size and scope of future rate hikes from the Fed as evidence mounts of a slowdown in Emerging Markets. This would be consistent with a further flattening of the yield curve and less pressure on spreads in Investment Grade. High Yield already offers the best risk-adjusted returns in US credit. The wild card remains EM Sovereigns; contagion is a real risk, and credit quality may not be an adequate defence.
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Where are all the good ideas?
Wednesday, June 6th, 2018Without them, equities may struggle this summer
There are very few sectors or countries which currently offer a better than 50% chance of beating the local risk-free, which is one of the reasons why we think that global equities will struggle over the summer. The UK has the highest concentration of winners. Healthcare and Utilities garner most mentions across all regions.
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Lagging sectors and regions
Wednesday, May 30th, 2018What does an underweight in both really mean?
This week we look at which equity sectors have historically been rated underweight when their region is also rated underweight. Causation is much harder to establish than for overweight sectors in overweight regions. The main lesson is that sector selection may not compensate for being in the wrong region in a bull market or the wrong asset class in a bear market.
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Leadership Potential
Wednesday, May 23rd, 2018Which sectors thrive when the region is overweight
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My Enemy’s Enemy
Thursday, May 17th, 2018Bond volatility not necessarily bad for equities
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Few places to hide
Thursday, May 3rd, 2018UK portfolios could be vulnerable to rising oil
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